Under our changing climate, the weather in Europe is getting more extreme. This was the warning from the European Environment Agency (EEA)

It also warned that in southern Europe, especially, there may be more than 60 summer days during which conditions are “dangerous to human health – meaning higher number of additional deaths and hospital admissions, especially among the elderly and the sick, unless adaptation measures are taken.”

It said that the overall outlook is “pessimistic” as regards to what this summer could bring in terms of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and forest fires. As has already been seen this past winter and spring.

This makes adaptation to climate change and better preparedness crucial, according to a European Environment Agency extreme weather product which has been published today, explaining the top weather-related climate challenges we face.

With the latest data available, the new EEA web product ”Extreme summer weather in a changing climate: is Europe prepared?’ takes a deep dive into the main summer weather extremes that have increasingly impacted the European population, economy and nature.

The EEA explained that users can explore interactive maps and charts information on heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires, and the rise of climate-sensitive diseases like dengue fever.

The briefings on each of these extremes look back at past events, what to expect in the future according to scientific projections, and how prepared anyone is to deal with them, including presenting examples and best practices across Europe.

The EEA added that the aim of the web product is to provide up-to-date information and data to raise awareness among decision makers and the public of the urgent need to address climate change and to support ongoing government efforts in putting in place climate mitigation measures and building societal preparedness.

What could the summer bring?

Heatwaves

The EEA said that heatwaves which are dangerous to human health – like the heatwaves of the summer of 2022 – are getting more frequent, longer and more intense and will continue to do so under all climate scenarios. In southern Europe, especially, there may be more than 60 summer days during which conditions are dangerous to human health – meaning higher number of additional deaths and hospital admissions, especially among the elderly and the sick, unless adaptation measures are taken.

Heatwaves are the deadliest extreme weather events in Europe and the increasing vulnerability of the European population due to ageing and urbanisation requires urgent implementation of measures to prevent loss of life, it said.

More frequent, extreme flooding

The EEA said that heavy precipitation events are projected to increase over most of Europe, leading to increased incidence of flooding, especially in north-western and central Europe. Adaptation measures are necessary to protect society from the worst impacts, such as those caused by flooding in July 2021 in Germany and Belgium.

The exposure of population and assets to the risk continues with the ongoing development of floodplains, often putting the more vulnerable populations and facilities such as schools and hospitals at risk. Between 1980 and 2021, damages due to flooding amounted to nearly EUR 258 billion and are on average rising every year by over 2%,the Agency said

More frequent, severe droughts

The EEA stressed that since 2018, more than half of Europe has been affected by extreme drought conditions in both winter and summer. The 2022 droughts substantially reduced yields of crops like maize, corn, soybeans or olive oil. Another dry winter does not bode well for this summer and the outlook is pessimistic.

The exceptionally dry and warm winter meant low snow cover and resulted in little soil moisture, low river flows and reduced water storage in reservoirs in most of southern and western Europe.

The Agency warned that long-term climate projections indicate that southern and central Europe will become even drier and hotter throughout the 21st century with devastating consequences for the agriculture sector.

It said that total economic losses across all economic sectors linked to droughts are expected to rise by the end of this century from the current EUR9 billion per year to EUR 25 billion per year at 1.5 degree Celcius (°C) of global warming, EUR 31 billion per year at 2°C of warming and EUR 45 billion a 3 °C warming based on scientific scenarios.

File photo: Gozo News/Alain Salvary

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